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Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

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How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    Resolves to the official outcome of this event: outcome 1 is "Yes" and outcome 2 is "No". Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes 2027-07-04T03:59:00.000Z. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.

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