Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if Iran or a force acting under Iran’s operational direction carries out a new kinetic attack against a U.S. person, military vessel, base, facility, or other U.S. asset at any time from September 7 through October 6, 2026, inclusive. Resolve No if no such attack occurs by the end of October 6, 2026. The event may be established by any qualifying public channel or a consensus of independent credible reporting; attacks reported before September 7 do not qualify. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).