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Problee Money is for play. It can't be cashed out or moved.

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Will Iran carry out another attack against a U.S. target by October 6, 2026?

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How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    The window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if Iran or a force acting under Iran’s operational direction carries out a new kinetic attack against a U.S. person, military vessel, base, facility, or other U.S. asset at any time from September 7 through October 6, 2026, inclusive. Resolve No if no such attack occurs by the end of October 6, 2026. The event may be established by any qualifying public channel or a consensus of independent credible reporting; attacks reported before September 7 do not qualify. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).

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