Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if, by September 21, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, Iran officially declares or formally announces a prohibited zone near the Strait of Hormuz. The declaration must be established by an official Iranian government statement, formal notice, state broadcaster carrying the official declaration, or a consensus of independent credible reporting. Plans, threats, warnings, negotiations, or reports that Iran intends to declare such a zone do not count. Resolve No if no such official declaration occurs by the deadline. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).