Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 6, 2026. Resolve Yes if, by October 4, 2026, Russia and Ukraine publicly announce that they have mutually agreed to a ceasefire, as established by official statements or a consensus of independent credible reporting. A unilateral pause, proposal, negotiation, localized truce, or agreement involving only one of them does not qualify. Resolve No otherwise. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).