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Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate by September 18, 2026?

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How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    The window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if the Bank of Japan makes an actual decision during or before its Monetary Policy Meeting ending September 18, 2026, that raises its uncollateralized overnight call-rate target above the prevailing around-1.0% target. A proposal, forecast, announcement of a future move, or market expectation does not count. Resolve No if no such increase occurs by the conclusion of that meeting. Source: Bank of Japan (authoritative).

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