Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if, at the Federal Open Market Committee policy decision on September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raises the target range for the federal funds rate above the range in effect immediately before the decision. Resolve No if the Federal Reserve leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it. The decision must be established by the Federal Reserve's official statement or by a consensus of independent credible reporting; a proposal, forecast, market expectation, or later commentary does not count. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (authoritative).
