Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 7, 2026. Resolve Yes if the U.S. 10-year Treasury benchmark yield is publicly reported above 5.000% at any time from September 7 through October 9, 2026, inclusive, by a credible public market-data source or a consensus of independent credible financial reporting. An intraday yield above 5.000% qualifies; forecasts, commentary, and yields on other Treasury maturities do not. Resolve No if no qualifying report shows the yield above 5.000% by the end of October 9, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (authoritative).
