Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 6, 2026. Resolve Yes if, by October 4, 2026, the United States brokers an agreement publicly accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments that commits them to a ceasefire in their war. The agreement may be temporary and need not be a comprehensive peace treaty. A limited pause applying only to attacks on Kyiv, a proposal, talks, or an announcement by only one side does not qualify. Resolve No if no qualifying agreement occurs by October 4, 2026. Any qualifying agreement must occur on or after September 6, 2026. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).