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Will the United States broker a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

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How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    The window opens on September 6, 2026. Resolve Yes if, by October 4, 2026, the United States brokers an agreement publicly accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments that commits them to a ceasefire in their war. The agreement may be temporary and need not be a comprehensive peace treaty. A limited pause applying only to attacks on Kyiv, a proposal, talks, or an announcement by only one side does not qualify. Resolve No if no qualifying agreement occurs by October 4, 2026. Any qualifying agreement must occur on or after September 6, 2026. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).

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