Resolution criteriaThe window opens on September 6, 2026. Resolve YES if, by September 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, the United States and Ukraine reach a substantive agreement on a ceasefire framework for Russia's war in Ukraine. Joint public confirmation, an agreed public text describing ceasefire terms or implementation, or a consensus of independent credible reporting that the terms were agreed qualifies. Talks, proposals, plans, or reports that do not establish an agreement do not qualify. Resolve NO otherwise. Source: Associated Press (authoritative).