Will an open-weight AI model score 47 or higher on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by September 24, 2026?
Will the best open-weight model be within 4 points of the best proprietary model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on October 17, 2026?
Will METR report an AI with a 4-hour time horizon at 80% success by October 17, 2026?
Will an AI reach 67% accuracy with a hallucination rate of 25.5% or lower on AA-Omniscience by October 17, 2026?
Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index at $5 or less per task by October 17, 2026?
Will any AI fully complete at least 50% of workflows on Artificial Analysis's AutomationBench-AA by October 17, 2026?
Will METR publish a study showing AI makes experienced developers significantly faster by December 17, 2026?
Will an AI score 80%+ on ARC-AGI-3 with the Standard harness for $26,098 or less by December 17, 2026?
Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index at $3.73 or less per task by December 17, 2026?
Will an AI model score 53+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at $1.63 or less per task by December 17, 2026?
Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index averaging 14.7 minutes or less per task by December 17, 2026?
Will METR report an AI with an 8-hour time horizon at 80% success by December 17, 2026?
