PortfolioLeaderboard

 

TermsPrivacySecurityBusinessProtocolFeesStatusContact

Problee Money is for play. It can't be cashed out or moved.

© 2026 Problee, Inc.

Recorded on Base

AllAIElectionsBusinessTechMovies & TVClimateSportsCryptoWorldPoliticsFavorites

Next verdict

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET23:00 UTC

Biggest moves today

  • +49%Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
  • +48%Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 US song this week?
  • +47%Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Elections

  • Democrats win Michigan governor?28dYes94%
  • Democrats win NJ-07?28dYes90%
  • Democrats win New Hampshire Senate election?28dYes90%
  • Democrats win PA-07?28dYes84%

Elections

  • Ken Sim wins Vancouver mayor?11dYes33%
  • Pete Fry wins Vancouver mayor?11dYes65%
  • Kareem Allam wins Vancouver mayor?11dYes<1%
  • Brad Bradford wins Toronto mayor?20dYes27%

Closing soon

  • Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET30mUp99%
  • Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET30mUp97%
  • S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 8?30mUp2%
  • Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $540 on October 8?30mYes1%
  • Predators vs. Canadiens23:00 UTCPredators39%
All 282 open markets

 

 

 

 

Back
Total Vol: 316.8 PMCloses in 84d

Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?

OPEN · Closes Jan 1, 2027, 10:59 UTC

Last trade 55%

How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result. A market that follows a source market settles exactly as its source does.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The result comes from the market's named source. A rarely used final review handles any problem before it becomes final.

  4. 4

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

Price History

PriceSharesTotal (PM)
Spread: —Mid —
—available
If correct
--
Average price
--
Fee
--

Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    Resolves to the official outcome of this event: outcome 1 is "Yes" and outcome 2 is "No". Resolution: the outcome is the common consensus of major outlets reporting on this event. Outcome 1 ("Yes") resolves if the reported outcome is "Yes", and outcome 2 ("No") if it is "No". Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC. If that consensus is absent, ambiguous, or reports the event as void or 50/50, this market resolves VOID and stakes are returned. If no clean, final, undisputed outcome is available by this market's resolution deadline, the outcome is determined by Problee's community resolution process.Follows Polymarket ↗

Insights

Researched 1 hour ago · 1 source checked

  • 1
    What decides this market?

    Resolves Yes if at least one named individual is a 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's announcement. A split between an individual and an organization counts as Yes. Declining or a posthumous award still counts. Resolves No if only organizations win, or if the prize is withheld or not announced by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET.

  • 2
    What's happened lately?

    2026-10-07: The 2026 Peace Prize is to be announced on 2026-10-09 in Oslo, at 10:00 BST (11:00 CEST) (Wikipedia and Oddschecker, via search; I did not open nobelprize.org). www.oddschecker.com

    2026-10-07: The Committee has 287 candidates for 2026: 208 individuals and 79 organizations (news reports). www.oddschecker.com

    2026-09-29: Oddschecker lists Vanessa Nakate as favourite, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms second, and Doctors Without Borders among the top contenders. Others named include David Attenborough, Yulia Navalnaya and Donald Trump (Oddschecker). www.oddschecker.com

    2026-10-07: No result has been published yet. www.oddschecker.com

  • 3
    What would change it?

    2026-10-09 11:00 CEST: Norwegian Nobel Committee announcement

  • 4
    What's the case for YES, and for NO?

    YES:

    NO:

Research, not advice.

Related Markets

Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?

Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?

Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?

Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?

Sign in to comment