PortfolioLeaderboard

 

TermsPrivacySecurityBusinessProtocolFeesStatusContact

Problee Money is for play. It can't be cashed out or moved.

© 2026 Problee, Inc.

Recorded on Base

AllElectionsCryptoBusinessAITechMovies & TVWorldPoliticsFavorites

Next verdict

BTC above $83,650.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTC

Biggest moves today

  • +55%Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index averaging 14.7 minutes or less per task by December 17, 2026?
  • +49%WLD above $0.4836 on Sep 30?
  • +43%BNB above $759.00 on Sep 30?

Elections

  • Democrats win Nevada governor?36dYes50%
  • Democrats win Georgia Senate election?36dYes95%
  • Democrats win New Hampshire Senate election?36dYes85%
  • Democrats win Michigan Senate election?36dYes71%

Elections

  • Ken Sim wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes35%
  • Pete Fry wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes66%
  • Kareem Allam wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes2%
  • Brad Bradford wins Toronto mayor?28dYes12%

Closing soon

  • Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?23:59 UTCYes2%
  • US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?23:59 UTCYes99%
  • BTC above $83,650.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes51%
  • SOL above $119.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes25%
  • XRP above $1.490 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes53%
All 144 open markets

 

 

 

 

Back
Closes in 78d

Will an AI score 80%+ on ARC-AGI-3 with the Standard harness for $26,098 or less by December 17, 2026?

OPEN · Closes Dec 17, 2026, 23:59 UTC

Opening price · no trades yet

How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

ARC-AGI-3 tests interactive reasoning in unfamiliar games. On the shared Standard harness, GPT-6 Astra's best verified result is 62.7% for $26,098. This asks for 80% without a bigger bill.

Price History

PriceSharesTotal (PM)
Spread: 0.04Mid 0.1
Sign in to comment

—available
If correct
--
Average price
--
Fee
--

Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    Resolves YES if ARC Prize publishes a verified ARC-AGI-3 Semi-Private result of 80.0% or higher using the Standard harness, with a total reported evaluation cost of US$26,098 or less. Score and cost must belong to the same evaluation run. Provider Adapter, PRO-LONG, Public Demo, preview and unverified community results do not count. Only results publicly published by ARC Prize at or before the close count. If no qualifying result is published by the close, this resolves NO. Source: ARC Prize (authoritative).

Related Markets

Will METR publish a study showing AI makes experienced developers significantly faster by December 17, 2026?

Will an AI model score 53+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at $1.63 or less per task by December 17, 2026?

Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index averaging 14.7 minutes or less per task by December 17, 2026?

Will METR report an AI with an 8-hour time horizon at 80% success by December 17, 2026?