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Next verdict

BTC above $83,650.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTC

Biggest moves today

  • +55%Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index averaging 14.7 minutes or less per task by December 17, 2026?
  • +49%WLD above $0.4836 on Sep 30?
  • +43%BNB above $759.00 on Sep 30?

Elections

  • Democrats win Nevada governor?36dYes50%
  • Democrats win Georgia Senate election?36dYes95%
  • Democrats win New Hampshire Senate election?36dYes85%
  • Democrats win Michigan Senate election?36dYes71%

Elections

  • Ken Sim wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes35%
  • Pete Fry wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes66%
  • Kareem Allam wins Vancouver mayor?19dYes2%
  • Brad Bradford wins Toronto mayor?28dYes12%

Closing soon

  • Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?23:59 UTCYes2%
  • US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?23:59 UTCYes99%
  • BTC above $83,650.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes53%
  • SOL above $119.00 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes26%
  • XRP above $1.490 on Sep 30?23:59 UTCYes54%
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Closes in 78d

Will an AI coding agent score 62+ on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index averaging 14.7 minutes or less per task by December 17, 2026?

OPEN · Closes Dec 17, 2026, 23:59 UTC

Opening price · no trades yet

How a market resolves
  1. 1

    Trade

    Buy and sell shares while the market is open. Prices show what the crowd expects.

  2. 2

    Close

    Trading stops and the creator posts the result.

  3. 3

    Result posted

    The posted result can be challenged before it becomes final. A challenge sends it to a community vote.

  4. 4

    Community vote

    Members stake PM to vote on the correct outcome. Call it right and you earn the stake back.

  5. 5

    Settled

    The result is finalised and every winning share pays out. Anything left unresolved is reviewed first.

Full resolution rules

Twice as fast without paying more. In September 2026 Codex with GPT-6 Astra (max) scored 62 in 29.4 minutes and $7.47 per task; this asks for the same score in half the time at no higher cost.

Price History

PriceSharesTotal (PM)
Spread: 0.02Mid 0.65
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Resolution rules

How this market resolves

  • 1
    Resolution criteria

    Resolves YES if Artificial Analysis shows one coding agent configuration with a Coding Agent Index score of 62 or higher, an average time per task of 14.7 minutes or less, and an average API cost per task of US$7.47 or less. All figures must belong to the same evaluated configuration (same model, harness and reasoning setting). Use Artificial Analysis's measured time per task, not token-speed estimates. Only results publicly shown by Artificial Analysis at or before the close count, read as Artificial Analysis publishes them on the current version of the benchmark. If no qualifying result is published by the close, this resolves NO. Source: Artificial Analysis (authoritative).

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